Fitness signals

Aerobic base + race-anchored fitness

Fitness estimate race-anchored VDOT

35w since race anchor · range 50.5–56.9
53.7 VDOT
Threshold pace 4:03/km
12w trend -0.3
Anchor תל אביב מרתון 21 27 Feb 2026

CS signal (raw, doesn't move the estimate)

Race predictions from current VDOT

5K 18:45 3:45 /km 17:51–19:47
10K 38:53 3:53 /km 37:00–41:00
Half Marathon 1:26:04 4:05 /km 1:21:50–1:30:48
Marathon 2:59:36 4:15 /km 2:50:56–3:09:13 extrapolated

Aerobic efficiency pace at 151±4 bpm

high confidence · 222 comparable runs · 6875 min eligible

HR cost heartbeats per km against pace, last 6 months

689 b/km at your typical 5:07/km · curve vs 3 months ago +0.6% · 221 runs, 104 h
usual cost 80% of runs (-5.1…+4.9%) last 14 days latest run
Date Run Pace HR b/km vs usual
26 Oct ☁️ Night Run 5:48 132 767 +3.4%
25 Oct Afternoon Run 5:38 132 744 +2.2%
25 Oct ☁️ Morning Run 5:19 142 756 +7.6% ↑
24 Oct Afternoon Run 5:37 136 767 +5.8% ↑
24 Oct Morning Run 5:23 146 788 +11.3% ↑
18 Oct Lunch Run 5:31 136 748 +4.4%
15 Oct Evening Run 5:35 127 709 -2.2%

Performance curve best pace by duration, 1min–2h

Short end (<=8min) slower by 12.9s/km · Long end (>=15min) faster by 2.0s/km
Last 12w Previous 12w All-time

Current bests

freshest clean segments by distance
Speed reserve

400m

1:32 3:51 /km
12 Oct 2026

workout segment · Afternoon Run

Aerobic durability Pa:Hr drift on long runs, last 6 months

Median Pa:Hr drift over the last 6w: 1.9% (was 7.3%).
5% watch 8% fade likely

Zones are built from VDOT 56.4 (34w ago), current estimate is 53.7. Recalculate zones →